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| December 10, 2009 |
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| STILL MORE BAD NEWS FOR REAL ESTATE: New Jobless Claims Rise After Falling For 5 Straight Weeks. ON THE OTHER HAND: Exports Up For 6th Straight Month, Boost Recovery. |
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| December 9, 2009 |
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| NOT GOOD NEWS FOR REAL ESTATE: Americans Grow More Pessimistic on Economy, Nation's Direction. |
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| ANOTHER SIGNAL THAT THIS ECONOMIC CYCLE IS MAYBE HITTING ITS BOTTOM: Wholesale Inventories, Mortgage Demand Rise. |
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| December 8, 2009 |
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| DALLAS HOME SALES SOAR!! REALLY? A front page Dallas Morning News article, Housing Market Sees Big Jump, cites a 31 percent year-to year-increase in pre-owned home sales in November as evidence that the "North Texas housing market came roaring back in November." While the article does go on to say (buried, however, on page 16A) "one reason last month's home sales look so strong is that the market almost came to a halt a year ago at the height of the economic spiral", it can easily be argued that both the headline and general thrust of this article are more cheerleading than anything else. Because of how year-to-year change calculations work, in fact it would have required a 50 percent increase to get just back to the same number of sales as recorded in 2008. After four straight years same month, year-to-year DFW pre-owned home sales decreases posted for November 2005 through 2008, an increase in the neighborhood of 97 percent would be required to get back to the level of sales that occurred in November 2005. Obviously it is good news for the DFW housing market that sales did not suffer yet another monthly drop, but this fairly anemic increase in home sales does not seem to justify any conclusion other than perhaps the DFW housing market is hitting bottom for this economic cycle. |
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| December 4, 2009 |
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| U.S. Unemployment Drops To 10 Percent. The fact that it went down, albeit only slightly, may help boost consumer confidence to some extent, but probably will do little or nothing to improve U.S. housing market conditions. |
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| December 3, 2009 |
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| THE OTHER SHOE DROPS: Mortgage Rates Hits New Record Lows. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 4.71 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending December 3. Down from 4.78 percent last week, this is the lowest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages since Freddy Mac began its weekly survey in 1991. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 5.53 percent. The 15-year rate again fell to a new low, averaging 4.27 percent, with 0.6 point. This was down from 4.29 percent last week. |
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| December 2, 2009 |
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| Latest market conditions for northwest Dallas suburbs posted. Bottom line is number of pre-owned homes sold in October up 4.4 percent and average annual home sale prices for August through October down 1.1 percent. Current residential real estate market data for selected cities/town in the northwest Dallas suburbs available on the Southlake, Colleyville, Flower Mound, Keller, west Plano, southwest Frisco, Coppell, Highland Village, Grapevine and Trophy Club pages. |
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| November 25, 2009 |
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| DFW Home Prices Fell 0.7 Percent over the past month, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report. Compared to September prices a year ago, previously occupied, single-family prices here dropped 1.2 percent. Nationwide, home prices in September were down 9.4 percent from a year earlier. This elicited a note of caution from a somewhat unlikely source. According to another S&P report also released this week, it seems such caution may be justified. |
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| ONE STEP BACK, ONE STEP FORWARD: After falling 0.6 percent in last month, consumer spending rose 0.7 percent in October. |
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| November 23, 2009 |
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| Home Sales Up 10.1 Percent In October. There are two problems, however, with thinking this undeniably good news should be seen as an accurate indicator of things to come. eventually, the administration is going to stop paying people to buy homes. It also may be that there may be an unusual level of double counting of sales occurring. |
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| Economists Predicting More Growth In 2010. Unfortunately, they also expect unemployment to continue to rise into the first quarter of 2010. |
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| November 19, 2009 |
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| MORTGAGE RATES NEAR OR AT RECORD LOWS: 30-Year Mortgage Rate At 8 Month Low. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 4.83 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending November 19. This is down from 4.91 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.04 percent. The 15-year rate fell to the lowest level since 1991, averaging 4.35 percent, with 0.6 point. This was down from 4.46 percent last week. |
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| November 18, 2009 |
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| NOT WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR: Obama Talking About Double-Dip Recession. |
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| November 17, 2009 |
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| Mortgage Delinquencies Hit New High. No surprise here of course. Unemployment is very high, and apparently heading even higher. |
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| November 16, 2009 |
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| STILL SEEMS IT IS GOING TO BE A LONG SLOG: Economist Nouriel Roubini suggests More Job Losses Likely. |
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| November 12, 2009 |
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| HOUSING MARKET IMPROVING, OR NOT: Foreclosure Filings Down Third Straight Month. A somewhat unlikely source says it's probably the latter. |
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| 30-Year Mortgage Rate Remains Below 5 Percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 4.91 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending November 12. This is down from 4.98 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.14 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.36 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.40 percent last week. |
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| November 11, 2009 |
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| MORE SAME OLD, SAME OLD: Only 5 Percent Of Americans Plan To Buy A Home Next Year. This survey was taken prior to the new $8,000/$6,500 tax credit being passed by Congress, but with unemployment at record levels, and trending up, that may boost the housing market about the same extent as record low mortgage rates have. |
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| November 6, 2009 |
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| U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT AT 10.2 PERCENT. This larger than expected jump now has some pretty prominent economist predicting unemployment will be at 11 percent By mid-2010. They may be right. |
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| November 5, 2009 |
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| 30-Year Mortgage Rate Again Drops Below 5 Percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 4.98 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending November 5. This is down from 5.03 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.20 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.40 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.46 percent last week. |
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| November 3, 2009 |
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| WHY TEXANS ARE LIKE, WELL, TEXANS: California Vs. Texas - The Verdict Is In. I usually do not post references to opinion pieces here, but in this case I am making an exception. My guess is the attitude that underpins the recent economic performance of Texas also is a big reason why it has missed the worst of the real estate meltdown. |
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| November 2, 2009 |
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| U.S. Pending Home Sales Up 6.1 Percent In September, compared to August contracts, and up 21.2 percent from a year a ago. In the northwest Dallas suburbs, pending contracts at the beginning of November on previously occupied homes were up 4.7 percent from pendings in early October, but up an eye-popping 46.2 percent from the same time a year ago. However, a comparison to sales pending at the same point in time two years ago show a much more modest 8.0 percent increase. |
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| October 29, 2009 |
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| ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL, OR NOT: U.S. Economy Grows 3.5 Percent In Third Quarter. There is little doubt that the government programs to stimulate auto and home sales shifted sales into this quarter. The very serious question that economists, along with a lot of other people, are asking is whether this altering consumer behavior in this manner does more harm than good when it comes to growing the economy long term. Judging from what is not being trumpeted in Washington, it appears little if any "pump priming" in the housing market has resulted from these outlays. |
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| 30-Year Mortgage Rate Remains Above 5 Percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased slightly to 5.03 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending October 29. This is up from 5.00 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.46 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.46 percent, with 0.6 point, up from 4.43 percent last week. |
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| October 28, 2009 |
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| DFW Home Prices Decline Smallest Of 20 Major U.S. Metro Areas, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report. Compared to August prices a year ago, previously occupied, single-family prices here dropped just 1.2 percent. Nationwide, home prices in August were down 11.3 percent. |
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| AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED: Mortgage Applications Slide For Third Straight Week. When the principal reason to buy, in this case a somewhat artificial stimulus, goes away, sales go down. It will be interesting in the coming months to observe whether the first-time homebuyer credit had any demonstrable long-term positive effects. FOR THE SAME REASON PROBABLY: U.S. New Home Sales Fall 3.6 Percent. |
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| October 27, 2009 |
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| MORE ECONOMIC PESSIMISM: U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls To Second Lowest Reading Since May. Still rising unemployment is blamed. |
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| October 23, 2009 |
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| U.S. Home Sales Up 9.4 Percent In September. It is a good bet that much of this sales volume is due to first-time homebuyers squeezing under the wire to take advantage of the tax credit that is set to expire November 30th. Though not really indicative of actual market conditions, also noted is August median sale prices were down nearly nine percent compared to prices the same time last year. |
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| Latest market conditions for northwest Dallas suburbs posted. Bottom line is number of pre-owned homes sold in September down 11.3 percent and average home sale prices for July through September down 9.8 percent. Current residential real estate market data for selected cities/town in the northwest Dallas suburbs available on the Southlake, Colleyville, Flower Mound, Keller, west Plano, southwest Frisco, Coppell, Highland Village, Grapevine and Trophy Club pages. |
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| Dallas/Fort Worth Fifth Strongest U.S. Metro Economy, according to new Brookings Institution study. Five of the top ten metro areas are in Texas. |
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| Dallas Morning News: Only One In Five Dallas Area Residential Districts Have Seen Price Increases This Year. Among the twelve northwest Dallas suburbs profiled on this website, no less than seven -- the Argyle area, Flower Mound, southwest Frisco, Highland Village, Keller, west Plano, and Southlake -- have seen average home prices for previously occupied homes increase since late last year / early this year. No MLS-listed Westlake homes, either previously occupied or new, were sold during the November 2008 - January 2009 period, so it is impossible to say whether prices there are up or down there for the year. |
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| October 22, 2009 |
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| MAY BE A WASH FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET: Some Economic Growth, But More Unemployment, according to latest reports. The net impact to the real estate market probably depends mostly on how many foreclosures this increase in unemployment causes. |
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| Mortgage Rate At 5 Percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased to 5.00 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending October 22. This is up from 4.92 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.04 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.40 percent, with 0.7 point, up from 4.37 percent last week. |
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| October 15, 2009 |
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| Mortgage Rate Still Below 5 Percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased slightly to 4.92 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending October 15. This is up from 4.87 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.46 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.37 percent, with 0.7 point, up from 4.33 percent last week. |
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| October 14, 2009 |
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| Jump In Foreclosures Blamed On Unemployment. So it definitely is not good news for the residential real estate market that unemployment is expected to continue trending up at least through next summer. |
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| October 9, 2009 |
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| MAYBE THIS IS A GOOD THING: Dallas Area New Homes Supply Down to Three Months. It seems to me this situation is mostly the result of some of the more marginal builders being forced to exit this market. There are excellent reasons to conclude this is a very good long-term development. It is true there are fewer inventory homes available, but my personal experience is that homes being built by the better builders are still readily available at attractive prices. |
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| October 8, 2009 |
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| GUESS THE PRICE IS RIGHT: With 30-year mortgage rates dipping below 5 percent, Mortgage Applications Jump 14.6 Percent. |
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| Government More Dominant In Mortgage Lending. For at least part of the U.S. populace, this probably is a pretty unsettling development. |
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| THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY ... Weekly New Jobless Claims Lowest Since January September Retail Sales Down Consumer Credit Down 7 Consecutive Months |
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| Mortgage Rates Nearing Record Low. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dipped to 4.87 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending October 8. This is down from 4.94 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 5.94 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.33 percent, with 0.7 point, down from 4.36 percent last week. |
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| October 5, 2009 |
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| Economist Nouriel Roubini still not particularly optimistic, but No Longer Predicting Double-Dip Recession. |
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| October 2, 2009 |
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| NOT UNEXPECTED, BUT STILL TERRIBLE NEWS: Unemployment Rate Reaches 9.8 Percent, Highest In 26 Years. And unfortunately, when it comes to economic indicators, this does not really seem to be an outlier. |
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| October 1, 2009 |
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| Mortgage Rates Now Down Fourth Consecutive Week . The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dipped to 4.94 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending October 1. This is down from 5.04 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.10 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.36 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.46 percent last week. |
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| September 24, 2009 |
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| SAME OLD, SAME OLD: Existing Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly. Also, median sale price down 12.5 percent, compared to August price last year. And this is occurring against a backdrop of the first time homebuyer credit that is scheduled to end November 30. |
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| Mortgage Rates Mostly Unchanged . The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages remained at 5.04 percent, but dropped to an average 0.6 percent point, for the week ending September 24. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.09 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.46 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.47 percent last week. |
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| September 23, 2009 |
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| Architectural Billings Index Down Slightly In August. This probably is a pretty accurate leading indicator for new construction. Too bad more detail about what type of construction projects architects are doing is not reported. |
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| September 22, 2009 |
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| UH-OH. Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Record High In August. |
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| MISLEADING LEDE? Single-Family Home Prices Inch Higher In July. The .3 percent increase reported was a comparison to June prices. Compared to a year ago, prices were down 4.2 percent. |
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| Homebuilders Happier About Current Sales. However, their optimism about the future probably is more limited. Homebuilders, maybe more than anyone, realize a tax credit has caused much of their recent activity and it is seeming more and more likely that this credit will expire at the end of November. |
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| September 18, 2009 |
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| OPPOSITION TO ENTITLEMENTS SEEMS TO BE INCREASING, probably making it less likely that Congress will extend first-time homebuyer credit past the end of November. |
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| September 17, 2009 |
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| Single-Family Housing Starts Down 3 Percent In August. 'Nuf said. |
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| Mortgage Rates Down Third Consecutive Week . The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped slightly to 5.04 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending September 19. This is down from 5.07 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 5.91 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.47 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.50 percent last week. |
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| September 15, 2009 |
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| NO SURPRISE TO THOSE WHO LIVE HERE: DFW Economic Conditions, Housing Markets Among U.S. Best, according to Brookings Institute analysis. |
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| September 11, 2009 |
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| PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING: U.S. Retail Sales Jump 2.7 Percent In August. A lot more news like this would be very welcome. It might even get the real estate market back on an even keel. Oh yeah, there was that small issue of the "cash for clunkers" program. |
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| Bernanke: Recession 'Very Likely Over'. However, this would simply mean that the economy is no longer contracting. The questions then are how quick and how robust will the recovery be. |
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| September 10, 2009 |
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| U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month. No way to put a happy face on this news item. |
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| Mortgage Rates Dip Slightly Again. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped slightly to 5.07 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending September 11. This is down from 5.08 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 5.93 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.50 percent, with 0.7 point, down from 4.54 percent last week. |
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| September 9, 2009 |
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| GOOD NEWS, KIND OF, WELL, MAYBE: Fed Survey Shows Recession May Be Over. No matter how much lipstick you put on the pig, the current state of the U.S. economy is not exactly a ringing endorsement of what has, or has not, been happening in Washington. |
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| HERE WE GO AGAIN: Treasury Says Millions More Foreclosures Coming. |
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| ANOTHER DOUBLE-DIGIT HIT: DFW Previously Owned Homes Sales Fall 15 Percent In August. Not mentioned in the report is this most recent decrease is on top of a 15+ percent year-to-year dip in August 2008 and a 10 percent slide in August 2007. |
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| Not sure what the bottom-line, long-term effect of this on the housing market, but a Federal Reserve report released today says Consumer Credit Plunged Record $21.5 Billion In July. According to the report, "The 10 consecutive monthly declines in revolving credit from October 2008 to July 2009 represent the longest pullback since the report began in January 1968." It probably goes with out saying that this is a most interesting development, not only for the housing market, but for the economy overall. |
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| September 4, 2009 |
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| NOT GOOD FOR HOUSING MARKET: U.S. Unemployment Hits 9.7 Percent. |
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| DFW Homes For Sale Down 17 Percent. The situation is different in the northwest Dallas suburbs, where the average number of previously owned homes listed for sale in July was 7.3 percent higher than a year ago. |
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| These guys certainly have a way of keeping expectations low. First Nouriel Roubini says U-Shaped Recovery Possible, and then Joseph Stiglitz piles on, saying Odds Of Robust U.S. Rebound Very, Very Weak. |
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| September 3, 2009 |
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| His presentation may be a somewhat one-sided, but economist David Lereah presents some legitimate reasons to believe that Recovery In U.S. Housing Market Likely To Be Slow. Good news is much of this may not apply to the Dallas market. |
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| Mortgage Rates Dip Slightly. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 5.08 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending September 4. This is down from 5.14 percent last week. Last year at this time, the rate for these loans was 6.35 percent. The 15-year rate averaged 4.54 percent, with 0.6 point, down from 4.58 percent last week. |
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| September 2, 2009 |
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| U.S. WORKER PRODUCTIVITY UP 6.6 PERCENT IN SECOND QUARTER, MOST IN 6 YEARS. This may well be the best long-term news for the economy in general and more specifically the housing market in, well, probably six years. |
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| September 1, 2009 |
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| WE CAN ALWAYS HOPE: Reports Suggest Broader, Stronger Than Expected Economic Recovery. That, at least, is the stated opinion of a few analysts. In any event, today's report that U.S. Manufacturing Expanded For The First Time In 19 Months is indeed good news. |
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| More proof that money (in this case an $8,000 tax credit) can be an effective motivator: July Pending Home Sales Highest In Two Years. Somehow, it seems more than a few members of the U.S. Congress have not quite caught on to the fact that it can both motivate people to do things and also can motivate them to not do things. |
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| August 28, 2009 |
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| NOT EXACTLY EXCITING NEWS: Consumer Spending Up 0.2 Percent In July. Especially ont when it comes on the heels of only a 0.1 percent June increase. |
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| July's Pre-Owned Home Sales In North Texas Down 7 Percent From Last Year. By comparison, sales of similar Northwest Dallas suburbs homes down 0.6 percent. If we are in the initial stages of a local housing market recovery, it should not be surprising that it is first becoming seen in this part of the metroplex. |
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| August 27, 2009 |
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| KEY INDICATORS POINTING TO U.S. RECECESSION ENDING: Unemployment Seems To Be Easing Somewhat. Not yet out of the woods here, but this key indicator is beginning to trend the right direction. Equally important is that GDP Shrinking At Diminishing Rate. From April to June, it shrank at a 1 percent annual rate. Readers of this page, however, probably are most interested in indications that the U.S. Housing Market Steadying. This opinion voiced by Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker is underlined by July U.S. New Home Sales Up 9.6 Percent. Since the summer busy season (which was not busy at all this year) has already ended, the effect of such a market shift will be less noticeable than if it had occurred four to five months ago. However, current market developments should serve as a warning to prospective homebuyers who want to buy at the bottom of the market that their window of opportunity probably is beginning to close. |
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| Mortgage Rates Up Slightly. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 5.14 percent, with an average 0.7 percent point, for the week ending August 27. This is up from 5.12 percent last week. The 15-year rate averaged 4.56 percent, also with 0.7 point, up from 5.6 percent last week. |
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| If you are relocating to or within the DFW metroplex and looking for the best real estate agent to assist you and your family with finding and buying a home, here are some important questions for you to ask. |
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